Flu cases are rising earlier than usual this year: here’s how to protect yourself
A watercolour image of coronaviruses
Flu season has started early this year
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has confirmed that the 2025–26 flu season has started in England, with signs that flu is beginning to circulate earlier than usual this year. Their latest surveillance report (covering data from 3–9 November 2025) shows that flu activity, while still at low levels overall, is increasing.
Although the report formally applies to England, patterns across the UK often move in a similar way – so this acts as an early warning for us here in Scotland too.
Figure 4. Daily percentage of tests positive for influenza among all reported influenza tests (7-day rolling average), England [note 2]
What does the latest data show?
From the week 46 UKHSA flu and COVID-19 surveillance report:
Flu activity is starting earlier than usual. UKHSA describe an “unusually early start” to the flu season.
Lab-confirmed flu is creeping up. The percentage of flu tests that are positive has risen from 10.9% to 11.9% in one week in national laboratory surveillance.
In a separate sentinel lab system (Respiratory DataMart), flu positivity has increased from 11.8% to 13.3% in a week.
Children and young people are leading the way. Flu positivity is highest in those aged 5–14 years, with around 28% of tests in that age group coming back positive in the latest week.
Most flu viruses subtyped so far are A(H3N2) – one of the strains that current vaccines are designed to protect against.
UKHSA and the MHRA have issued a briefing to the NHS confirming that the flu season has started, and UKHSA have published early data on how well this year’s vaccine is working.
At the same time:
COVID-19 levels are at baseline and have fallen compared with the previous week.
RSV and some other winter viruses are rising, particularly in young children, but are still at baseline levels overall.
So the picture is: flu is picking up early, COVID-19 is quieter but still present, and other winter viruses are bubbling away in the background.
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UKHSA have also released early data on how well the 2025/26 flu vaccine is performing. Their analysis suggests that so far this season the vaccine is:
Around 70–75% effective at preventing hospital attendance in children aged 2–17 years
Around 30–40% effective at preventing hospital attendance in adults
Those numbers may change slightly as we go through the season, but they are reassuring – especially given that most of the circulating viruses so far are H3N2, which can sometimes be more severe in older adults.
Like any medicine, flu vaccines can cause side effects (for example, a sore arm, low-grade fever or feeling a bit under the weather for a day or two), and they won’t prevent every case of flu. But this early data supports what we expect: vaccination significantly reduces the risk of flu leading to serious illness and hospital care.
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If you fall into any of the groups below, it’s worth making a plan now, rather than waiting until flu is all over the news:
Adults aged 65 and over
Pregnant people
People of any age with long-term health conditions (such as asthma, COPD, heart disease, diabetes, kidney or liver disease, weakened immune system)
Carers and frontline health or social care workers
Children (who often bring flu home to more vulnerable family members)
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Because the 2025–26 season has started earlier than usual, we may see flu circulating alongside other viruses while the weather is still relatively mild and people are mixing at school, university, work, Christmas markets and festive events.
Getting vaccinated before flu peaks, helps:
Reduce your chances of getting sick at a busy time of year
Protect people close to you who may be more vulnerable
Ease pressure on the NHS by reducing the number of people who need hospital care
A pharmacist carefully applies a plaster to a patient’s arm following a vaccination.
How Pharmacy Clinic Edinburgh can help
At Pharmacy Clinic Edinburgh, we offer:
Private flu vaccinations for adults and children
A calm, appointment-based service with time to discuss your health conditions, medicines and any questions you have
COVID-19 booster vaccinations (when available and appropriate) and advice on other winter health topics
We always practice within UK and Scottish guidance, and we’ll talk through benefits, risks and common side effects so you can make an informed choice.
Not sure if flu vaccination is right for you?
If you’re unsure whether a private flu jab would be suitable, you can:
Call us on 0131 629 1800
Book an appointment online via our website
Pop in and speak to a pharmacist for personalised advice
Flu season is here earlier than expected this year – but there is still plenty you can do to reduce your risk, protect your loved ones, and stay well over winter.
